Reflexiones sobre ciencia, economía, ecología, política y comportamiento humano
En la red
Esta obra está bajo una licencia de Creative Commons.
Pedro J. Hernández
Suppose a country, which we arbitrarily call Spain, experiences a boom which is stronger than in the rest of the euro-area. As a result of the boom, output and prices grow faster in Spain than in the other euro-countries. This also leads to a real estate boom and a general asset inflation in Spain. Since the ECB looks at euro-wide data, it cannot do anything to restrain the booming conditions in Spain. In fact the existence of a monetary union is likely to intensify the asset inflation in Spain. Unhindered by exchange risk vast amounts of capital are attracted from the rest of the euro-area. Spanish banks that still dominate the Spanish markets, are pulled into the game and increase their lending. They are driven by the high rates of return produced by ever increasing Spanish asset prices, and by the fact that in a monetary union, they can borrow funds at the same interest rate as banks in Germany, France etc. After the boom comes the bust. Asset prices collapse, creating a crisis in the Spanish banking system.Publicado en el Financial Times, 1998.02.20
At a global scale, distance-decay theory suggests that Osama bin Laden’s current location is not likely to be random, and his probability of occurrence exponentially decreases the further he moves from his last known location (5-7). Our results based on his last know location in 2001 indicate that there is a 98% probability that he is in Kurram, Pakistan, and an 86.6% probability that he is within one of the seven FATAs. The FATAs have long been outside of central government control and served as reservoirs of militant Islamists working to change the governments in both Kabul and Islamabad since the 1970s. Based on his last known location in Tora Bora, we estimate that he must have traveled 3.1 km over an approximately 4,000 meter pass in winter to enter Kurram, Pakistan. Doing so would have been extremely difficult for a 44-year old man with diabetes. Kurram is surrounded on three sides by the Afghan border (known as the Durand Line), which essentially cuts right though the ethnically Pushtun belt that straddles it. It is unlikely that he would have headed back into Afghanistan after leaving Tora Bora, if only because doing so would have required him to abandon the mountains for more open countryside.Finding Osama bin Laden: An Application of Biogeographic Theories and Satellite Imagery. Febrero 2009
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¡Tremendo! No es ya que la primera predicción sea previa a la reciente crisis económica, sino que es anterior incluso al propio boom inmobiliario en España (que fue sobre todo de 2000 a 2008), incluso anterior a la propia existencia de la política monetaria común de la zona euro (estaba a punto de comenzar).
¿Predicción o planificación?