ves esta página sin formato por que esta hecha cumpliendo el estándar web CSS 2.
tú navegador no soporta este estándar, o tienes dicho soporte desactivado.
si estas en el primer caso, actualízate. merece mucho la pena.

Ecos del futuro

Reflexiones sobre ciencia, economía, ecología, política y comportamiento humano

Archivos

<Marzo 2017
Lu Ma Mi Ju Vi Sa Do
    1 2 3 4 5
6 7 8 9 10 11 12
13 14 15 16 17 18 19
20 21 22 23 24 25 26
27 28 29 30 31    


Últimos comentarios

  • Pedro J. en Estratagemas antinucleares
  • Francesc en Estratagemas antinucleares
  • Pedro J. en Estratagemas antinucleares
  • Yepa en Estratagemas antinucleares
  • Pedro J. en Estratagemas antinucleares
  • Yepa en Estratagemas antinucleares
  • Pedro J. en En defensa del argumento de autoridad y el consenso científico
  • Javi en En defensa del argumento de autoridad y el consenso científico
  • plazaeme en En defensa del argumento de autoridad y el consenso científico
  • plazaeme en En defensa del argumento de autoridad y el consenso científico


  • Categorías

  • Acertijos
  • Astronomia
  • Ateismo
  • Biologia
  • Cambio climatico
  • Civilizacion
  • Comportamiento humano
  • Corporaciones
  • cortos
  • Crisis
  • Cristianismo
  • Destino
  • Dinero
  • Ecologia
  • Economia
  • Educacion
  • Energia
  • Enlaces
  • Escepticismo
  • Etica
  • Evolucion
  • Extincion
  • Felicidad
  • Fisica
  • Futuro
  • Genetica
  • Globalizacion
  • Guerra
  • Historia
  • Humor
  • Islam
  • Libros
  • Longevidad
  • Loteria
  • Metodo cientifico
  • Neurologia
  • Nuclear
  • Ocio
  • Petroleo
  • Política
  • Psicologia
  • Religion
  • Riesgo
  • Salud
  • Sociedad
  • Tecnologia
  • Trabajo

  • Series

  • Mecánica cuántica. En progreso

  • Materia oscura

  • Economía de la práctica religiosa

  • Imagen del principio del universo

  • Ahogado en una supercuerda


    En la red

  • Antigua página personal
  • Tutorial de Cosmología
  • @ecosdelfuturo
  • La ciencia del cambio climático


    Creative Commons License
    Esta obra está bajo una licencia de Creative Commons.


    2006-2017

    Pedro J. Hernández



    Blogalia

    Blogalia

  • Inicio > Historias > Dos predicciones curiosas y precisas

    Dos predicciones curiosas y precisas

    Suppose a country, which we arbitrarily call Spain, experiences a boom which is stronger than in the rest of the euro-area. As a result of the boom, output and prices grow faster in Spain than in the other euro-countries. This also leads to a real estate boom and a general asset inflation in Spain. Since the ECB looks at euro-wide data, it cannot do anything to restrain the booming conditions in Spain. In fact the existence of a monetary union is likely to intensify the asset inflation in Spain. Unhindered by exchange risk vast amounts of capital are attracted from the rest of the euro-area. Spanish banks that still dominate the Spanish markets, are pulled into the game and increase their lending. They are driven by the high rates of return produced by ever increasing Spanish asset prices, and by the fact that in a monetary union, they can borrow funds at the same interest rate as banks in Germany, France etc. After the boom comes the bust. Asset prices collapse, creating a crisis in the Spanish banking system.
    Publicado en el Financial Times, 1998.02.20
    At a global scale, distance-decay theory suggests that Osama bin Laden’s current location is not likely to be random, and his probability of occurrence exponentially decreases the further he moves from his last known location (5-7). Our results based on his last know location in 2001 indicate that there is a 98% probability that he is in Kurram, Pakistan, and an 86.6% probability that he is within one of the seven FATAs. The FATAs have long been outside of central government control and served as reservoirs of militant Islamists working to change the governments in both Kabul and Islamabad since the 1970s. Based on his last known location in Tora Bora, we estimate that he must have traveled 3.1 km over an approximately 4,000 meter pass in winter to enter Kurram, Pakistan. Doing so would have been extremely difficult for a 44-year old man with diabetes. Kurram is surrounded on three sides by the Afghan border (known as the Durand Line), which essentially cuts right though the ethnically Pushtun belt that straddles it. It is unlikely that he would have headed back into Afghanistan after leaving Tora Bora, if only because doing so would have required him to abandon the mountains for more open countryside.
    Finding Osama bin Laden: An Application of Biogeographic Theories and Satellite Imagery. Febrero 2009

    2011-05-05 00:40 | Crisis, Política | 2 Comentarios


    Referencias (TrackBacks)

    URL de trackback de esta historia http://ecos.blogalia.com//trackbacks/69604

    Comentarios

    1
    De: Jesús R. Fecha: 2011-05-06 10:54

    ¡Tremendo! No es ya que la primera predicción sea previa a la reciente crisis económica, sino que es anterior incluso al propio boom inmobiliario en España (que fue sobre todo de 2000 a 2008), incluso anterior a la propia existencia de la política monetaria común de la zona euro (estaba a punto de comenzar).



    2
    De: Autógeno Fecha: 2012-03-07 12:07

    ¿Predicción o planificación?



    Nombre
    Correo-e
    URL
    Dirección IP: 54.159.148.171 (b53a151e36)
    Comentario

    portada | subir | Entradas anteriores→